Every seller’s projection is a sales document. Treat it like one.
I’ve sat on both sides of this table: the guy presenting the pro forma, and the guy telling an investor their numbers didn’t hold up. This page is written from the second seat.
Schedule an Investment ConsultationGross cap rates in this corridor run 7 to 9 percent. Almost nobody nets that.
Management fees, HOA dues, insurance, maintenance, and tourism tax eat into that gross number fast. After real costs, well-chosen properties in this market typically net 4 to 6 percent, not the 7 to 9 percent a seller’s projection likes to lead with.
That gap isn’t a scandal. It’s just math most sellers don’t volunteer. Average daily rate in this corridor runs around $280, occupancy sits near 56 percent, and both of those numbers move by community, by property size, and by who’s managing it. A projection built on someone else’s best month isn’t a projection. It’s marketing.
I underwrite every deal the way I’d want it underwritten if it were my own money, using real occupancy history where it exists, and honest market ranges where it doesn’t.
The zoning question comes before the numbers question.
Not every property in Osceola County can legally operate as a short-term rental. STRs here are only permitted in designated overlay districts, and even inside those districts, your HOA or CDD can still prohibit rental activity regardless of what the county allows. I’ve watched investors fall in love with a pro forma before confirming the property could even legally do what the projection assumed.
Then there’s the tax line most first-time buyers forget to model: guests pay a combined 12 to 13.5 percent in state and county tax on every booking, calculated on the full charge. That means cleaning fees, pet fees, everything, not just the nightly rate. It’s not a huge number, but it’s a real one, and it’s not optional.
Four numbers, before anything else.
These are corridor-wide ranges, not promises for any specific address. Every property’s real number depends on its community, size, and management. But they’re a far more honest starting point than a single seller’s best-case month, and they’re where every underwriting conversation with me starts.
I’ve never pushed a deal because I needed the commission more than you needed the return.
Early in my career, my job was to make a projection look good enough to close. I got very good at that. I don’t do it anymore. Not because I stopped being good at it, but because I decided I’d rather build a business on being right five years later than being persuasive on day one.
If your numbers don’t work, I’ll tell you before you wire a deposit. If they do work, I’ll tell you exactly why, with real ranges instead of a single optimistic scenario.
Bring me a deal. I’ll tell you what I think.
Whether you’re looking at your first property in this corridor or your fifth, I’ll walk through the real math with you before you commit to anything.
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